Game 4 is set to get underway in the Western Conference Final of the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Edmonton Oilers host the Colorado Avalanche. Despite there being only one game on Monday, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.
Below, I give out my two best bets for Monday’s lone game.
These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Score a Goal >>
Colorado Avalanche (-130) @ Edmonton Oilers (+110)
The Edmonton Oilers now trail 3-0 in the series as the Colorado Avalanche have taken a commanding lead following Saturday’s 4-2 victory. Despite the fact that I keep backing Edmonton and they keep losing, I am taking them once again with their backs against the wall on home ice.
Even though Game 3 did not go in the Oilers’ favor, they dominated the Avalanche on home ice. According to MoneyPuck.com, Edmonton would have won that game 73.4% of the time after 1000 game simulations.
Edmonton generated more high-danger scoring chances as they produced 3.25 expected goals for (xGF) compared to Colorado’s 2.48. Backup goaltender Pavel Francouz was outstanding for Colorado, a trend I am not sure is sustainable during the absence of Darcy Kuemper.
In Game 3, Francouz stopped 27 of the 29 shots he faced for a 0.931 save percentage. These were not all easy saves either as he finished the game with +1.25 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Both of these figures are much higher than Francouz’s season averages as he possesses a 0.916 save percentage and +0.095 GSAx per 60 minutes this year. If he regresses like I think he will, Edmonton should be able to light up the scoreboard and force a Game 5 in this series.
Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers ML (+110)
Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers, o/u 7 (+115/-135)
As I mentioned above, I expect some regression from Pavel Francouz in Game 4. If Edmonton is able to score at least four goals, that means we would just need a minimum of three from the Avalanche.
I think this is a very fair expectation as Edmonton’s starting goaltender Mike Smith has struggled against Colorado in this series. Smith has now allowed three or more goals in each of the first three games.
Over those three contests, Smith has produced a mere 0.879 save percentage. While the total goals scored have gone under seven in two of the last three games, the first game of this series saw 14 total goals scored.
With how great each of these offenses is and how below-average the two starting goaltenders have played this season, we should see a scoring output more similar to Game 1 than the last two games. Oddsmakers are clearly in agreement with this hypothesis as the total is set at seven, which is an astoundingly high total for a playoff game following two straight games that went under that number.
Best Bet: Avalanche/Oilers o7 (+115)
Best of luck!
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