Game one of the Western Conference Finals was wild. A matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche that featured 14 goals, 13 different goal scorers, and four different goaltenders getting time on the ice. The Avs earned an 8-6 win in the best-of-seven opener and will look to expand their lead tonight before heading to Canada for games three and four.
I’ll be locking in this two-leg parlay (+227) for tonight’s matchup at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado:
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Score a Goal >>
Edmonton Oilers (+155) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-180) O/U 7.5
(Puck Drop: 8:00 p.m. ET)
Some books are offering 7.0 goals as a total, while others are at 7.5 with a plus-money payout to the over. I’m not going to overthink this one and lock in the over on 7.5 goals (+110) for the first leg of this two-leg parlay. The GAAs and SV% will take a hit this series as these are two of the most potent offenses in hockey. This postseason, the Avs and Oilers are the two top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.6 and 4.5 goals per game, respectively.
It seemed like it was a reality show all season in Edmonton, with the goaltending fiasco taking center stage. However, Mike Smith has been able to string together some, well, we’ll call them “serviceable” outings to aid the Oilers this far. The 40-year-old netminder has posted a 3.12 GAA and 0.917 SV% through 13 games this postseason, and he was lit up for six goals in 26:20 of ice time in game one. I think that’s more true of the form that we should expect out of Mike Smith from here on out.
With that being said, and like it’s been for the past several seasons, Edmonton will have to rely on their top-heavy offense to carry the load. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Co. are well aware of that, and they’re going to pressure the Avs to try and keep pace on the scoreboard. As I said, let’s not overthink this one and take the over tonight in Denver.
Leg 1: Over 7.5 (+110)
I’m expecting the Mike Smith/Mikko Koskinen duo to get torched again tonight, and I’ll be taking the Avalanche moneyline to round out this parlay. In addition to inconsistent goaltending this postseason, the Oilers have found themselves on the penalty kill 43 times in the playoffs – the most amongst teams still playing. Colorado went 1/2 on the power play in game one, and they’re the top team in the NHL this postseason, cashing on 35.5% of their man-advantage opportunities.
The Avs are the more well-rounded team, and I think they’ll be able to handle the Oilers tonight at home. To put it blatantly, Edmonton is weak on the backend, and it’s a miracle they’ve made it this far into the postseason. Of course, they have an elite top two lines, but the offense can only carry you so far before getting exposed in your own zone. Look for the Avs to run up the scoreboard again tonight and take a 2-0 series lead.
Leg 2: Avalanche ML
Total Odds: +227 via DraftKings
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