Some interesting games are on tap for the Sunday before Memorial Day. There are a couple of bets where the positive odds look good, so it could mean a great night heading into the short week. Let’s check out these picks for Sunday.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
San Fransisco Giants (-146) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+124) O/U 9
(First Pitch 11:36 a.m. ET)
The Giants have been a great offense this season as they’re second in wOBA (.325), third in OBP (.330), and seventh in slugging (.404).
They’re going to need that offense to be firing on all cylinders for Alex Cobb, whose surface numbers do not look good but is actually pitching well when you dig in further. His last two starts were just plain bad as he has a 10.32 ERA, but one of those starts was in the thin air of Colorado, and the other was against the Mets, who are one of the best offenses in the league. His pitching overall is still really good as he’s over the 90th percentile in xBA, hard hit percentage, xSLG, and exit velocity. It’s hard to believe these bad outings will continue.
Tyler Mahle is another pitcher whose bad numbers stem from a couple of starts. He allowed seven earned against the Dodgers, but they’re the best lineup in the league, and against the Cubs, who got the benefit of a couple of Frank Schwindel shots that just cleared the opposite fence.
While I believe these starters can keep this game low scoring, they have bullpens you can’t trust. The Reds bullpen is 28th in ERA (4.59), and the Giants are 26th (4.47). Anything can happen late in this game, so let’s run with the under in the first five.
Leg: 1: Under 4.5 in the first five innings (+104)
Milwaukee Brewers (-136) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+116) O/U 7
(First Pitch 2:11 p.m. ET)
If you can believe it, Corbin Burnes has regressed in the month of May. He went from a 1.75 ERA in April, and now it’s ballooned to a 2.18 as he broke his six-straight quality start streak when he allowed four earned against Atlanta.
His biggest concern will be facing the top half of the Cardinals lineup with Paul Goldschmidt, who is hitting .444 in 19 at-bats against Burnes, and Tommy Edman, who is .357 in 13 AB. Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in the league this year, and Edman has been hitting well in this series.
On the other side, Miles Mikolas is even better as he’s allowed less than three runs in eight of nine starts. He’s a way too early Cy Young candidate as he’s first in WAR amongst pitchers and fourth in the NL in ERA.
He also has to worry about the Brewers middle of the lineup as Lorenzo Cain is batting .316 in 19 at-bats with a home run, and Victor Cartini is batting .417 in 12 AB.
This is going to be a great pitcher matchup, and although Milwaukee overall is the better overall offense this season, the Cardinals have been the better offensive team as of late.
Leg 2: Cardinals ML
Kansas City Royals (+166) vs. Minnesota Twins (-198) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 2:11 p.m. ET)
The veteran Sonny Gray has found his old self after a rough 2021 with Cincinnati. His strikeout percentage is up this year, and the momentum on pitches has all increased in his first season in Minnesota. He’s coming with back-to-back quality starts and has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his starts this season.
He’s going against another long-time veteran who is not pitching so well this season. Zach Grienke’s second tenure with the Royals is not going as hoped as he’s yet to record a win and sports a 4.53 ERA. He used to have swing and miss stuff that earned him six all-star appearances and a Cy Young award, but with a career of 8.1 strikeouts per nine coming into this season, it’s at just 4.3 in 2022.
The Twins are one of the more disciplined offenses this year as they’re fourth in walk rate (9.8%) and seventh in chase rate (26.3). With Grienke’s inability to get hitters to swing and miss and his control issues, the Twins should be able to control this game early.
Leg 3: Twins ML
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +563
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