Let’s get into some Saturday baseball. We need to take advantage when one team is much better than their opponent, and we’ll use one of those games today, but there are some great values in more equal matchups. When you look at the trends and stats, they have a great value to pad the parlay.
Detroit Tigers (+250) vs. New York Yankees (-310) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 1:06 p.m. ET)
On Friday night, the Yankees’ offense feasted on the Tigers’ pitching staff as they racked up 13 runs in a lopsided shutout. They may have a little league field, but they sure know how to use it as they have an MLB-leading 1.43 home runs per game, including Aaron Judge became the first player in 2022 to have 20.
On Saturday afternoon, they face off against rookie Beau Brieske who is getting lit up to start his major league career. He’s fourth in the American league by allowing ten home runs, and he’s near the bottom in whiff and strikeout percentage, meaning this power-hitting lineup will get some good hacks.
Luis Severino will be on the other side, and he’s been really good in his first season in a while, being fully healthy. The swing-and-miss stuff that made him successful early in his career is there, and it should provide success against this Detroit lineup. The Tigers struggled against the power pitching of Gerrit Cole as they went hitless till the seventh, and with the similar pitching style of Severino, he should lock down this lineup.
The Bronx Bombers will get another lopsided win today.
Leg 1: Yankees -1.5
Arizona Diamondbacks (+108) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-126) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 4:06 p.m. ET)
I would have never thought I’d be writing this, but the Pirates are coming in hot as they thanks to the road sweep of the Dodgers and a win in the first set against the Diamondbacks.
The bats have been on fire as they scored over six runs per game in that LA series, more than double their season average, and pitching had a 3.67 ERA, an entire run lower than the season average.
Roansy Contreras has some great stuff, and he’s pitched well since becoming a starter. This young man already knows how to elevate his fastball out of the zone for a swing and miss; his slider has been nearly impossible to touchdown with a whiff rate of 48.6% and a strikeout rate of 44.4%.
It’s been peaks and valleys for the Diamondbacks, and they’ve been reverting to the team we saw in early April — losing and not hitting well. One thing this lineup does a lot is strikeout as they walk away empty-handed in over 25% of their at-bats. Contreras should be able to rack up the K’s.
Zach Davies will go for Arizona this season, and it has been a constant struggle. The command issue that allowed him to walk a league-leading 75 batters last year continues as he’s averaging 3.5 this season. Pittsburgh is a well-disciplined lineup as they’re 11th in walk rate (8.8%) and 12th in whiff rate (24.8%). They should get some free passes and put some runs across the board.
Leg 2: Pirates ML
Washington Nationals (+120) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-142) O/U 9.5
(First Pitch 4:11 p.m ET)
Both the Nationals and Reds exploded offensively on Friday night, and as we take a look at the matchup for Saturday, we should expect the same.
Tyler Mahle can give you a really good performance, but sometimes it can all fall apart, and before you know it, he’s put Cincinnati far behind. The Nationals lineup hits well against right-handers on the road as they lead the league in average (.282), OBP (.349), and BABIP (.338).
Erick Fedde is coming off a bad start where he allowed six earned against the Mets and when you pull back the curtain, his numbers are not good. He ranks in the bottom 11th percentile in chase and whiff rate and below league-average movement on his pitches, allowing hitters to make solid contact.
If the offense doesn’t put up runs against the starters, they certainly will against two of the top five worse bullpens in the league.
Both of these teams are top 10 in over percentage this season with more than 50% and have 22 runs in the first two games. 9.5 is a big total, but it will hit.
Leg 3: Over 9.5
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +482
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