With today being a holiday, there are tons of day and night games, and we have you covered for this Memorial Day. It’s also a good day to bet on some underdogs as we have a couple of them that should pull off the win.
Minnesota Twins (-168) vs. Detroit Tigers (+142) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 1:11 p.m. ET)
The Twins are rolling as they’ve won eight of their last 14 by at least two runs and 10 overall. This is one of the better lineups in the league, especially when it comes to plate discipline as they’re fourth in walks (172) and seventh in chase rate (26.2%).
Dylan Bundy will go for Minnesota, and while his surface numbers may have you thinking fade, overall he’s pitched well this season. He has four starts this season where he’s pitched at least five innings and allowed one or no earned runs while being in the 70th percentile or higher in hard-hit percentage, walk percentage, chase rate, xBA, and xSLG.
He’s coming off a really good start against Detroit where a solo home run from Harold Castro was his only mistake. He should have the confidence against the lineup as they’re collectively hitting just .197 off of him in 75 at-bats.
The Tigers will send up Beau Brieske, and unlike Bundy, his surface and deeper numbers have not been good. Winless in six starts, he has a 5.04 ERA, but his .514 xSLG and 5.99 xERA are in the bottom percentile of the league. While he did only allow two runs against the Twins in his last start, he would get the loss due to a lack of run support. In that start, the Twins hit .308 with a xwOBA of .404 and made some really good contact off him that might find grass the second time around.
Leg 1: Twins -1.5
Miami Marlins (-164) vs. Colorado Rockies (+138) O/U 10.5
(First Pitch 4:11 p.m. ET)
The Marlins started the season well winning 12 of their first 20 games, but they have regressed in May as they’re 7-17 heading toward the end of the month.
The offense has gotten better as they went from batting .235 in April to .247 in May, but it’s been the pitching that is largely the reason for this slide.
One of the noticeable changes is in today’s starter Pablo Lopez. He was looking like a possible Cy Young candidate with a 1.05 ERA in his first seven starts but has struggled with a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts. He’s dealing with location issues along with a season-high three walks against the Nationals.
He will face a Rockies lineup who is leading the league in batting average (.264) and has a small but effective history against Lopez – Charlie Blackmon 4-for-6, Garett Hampson 2-for-5, and Randall Grichuk 2-for-2 with two HR.
He’ll be in the thin air of Denver for this start. With how he’s been pitching lately, the positive regression won’t come just yet.
Leg 2: Rockies ML
Washington Nationals (+160) vs. New York Mets (-190) O/U 8.5
(First Pitch 7:11 p.m. ET)
The problem with the Nationals this season is they’re not hitting when it counts. While they’re fifth with a .254 batting average, they’re 21st in runs per game with 4.06. The offense needs to put more runs on the board as the pithing struggles with a 4.94 ERA and a run differential of -54.
If someone can give the Nats a chance to win it’s Erick Fedde. By far their best starter, his 3.55 ERA is two points lower than anyone else in the rotation and his 8.1 hits per nine are also the fewest. He’s facing a very tough Mets’ lineup, but it looks like cake as he just shut down the Dodgers in this last start going six shutout innings and allowing just four hits.
On the other side, Dave Peterson has been one of those guys that has stepped up with several injuries to the Mets’ rotation. Pitching well to start the season, he’s starting to regress slightly in the last couple of starts, but his offense has given him the run support for the win.
While the Nationals lineup struggles overall, they are hitting well against lefties on the road this season as they’re tenth-best with a .262 average and fifth with 36 RBI. This could mean a tough day for the southpaw.
This is a great game to pick the underdogs. Fedde has been outstanding throughout the season and the Nats could give him enough run support to pull off a win.
Leg 3: Nationals ML
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +1113
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