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Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, April 21 (2022)

Yesterday’s slate wasn’t the best for us. We went 1-2 and pretty much got lucky in that Yankees/Tigers game with that 8th run.

You can’t dwell on bad days though. When you put in the work daily, you’re going to see results in the long term. So far, that’s been the case. We’ve had more winning days than losing days and that should continue on throughout the entire year.

Here are my best bets for April 21 in the MLB.

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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals F5 Total (-115)
It’s a small slate today with nothing that I love. However, this game stands out to me the most with two very below-average pitchers on the bump.

Josh Rogers will take the mound for the Nationals. Dating back to last year, he’s had a 6.23 xFIP with 14.1% strikeouts and 9.4% walks. The left-hander has faced 137 righties and has given up a .361 wOBA and ISO of .231 in those 137 plate appearances. Rogers will likely have to face six righties in the lineup including dangerous ones like Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly.

Meanwhile, Arizona will send out Zach Davies who has a 5.42 xFIP dating back to last year. His strikeouts were down, walks were high, and continues to give up nearly 24% of line drives.

Davies has been bad against both sides of the plate but just wait until he has to face a stack of Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell. Things are going to go downhill from there.

Bet: Over 5 F5 (-115 at DraftKings)  

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians F5 Team Total (2.5, +125)
There’s some value with the White Sox today. The Guardians will send out Zach Plesac who has a 5.08 xFIP dating back to last season. Plesac will limit walks but has been a bit lucky with batting average of balls in play dating back to last year. Righties have a .211 ISO against Plesac dating back to last year and he’ll have to face six righties in the White Sox lineup.

Some of the righties that have potential power against Plesac include notable names like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and Jake Burger. Chicago to score three runs in the first five innings at heavy plus money is the way to go.

Bet: White Sox Over 2.5 F5 TT (+125 at DraftKings) 

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Moneyline (-125)
I’m not the only one who has been impressed by Joe Ryan this season, right? Joe Ryan has a 2.70 ERA through two starts with a WHIP of 1.10. He also has 11 strikeouts in two games and really looks like he’s developing in the right direction.

He held a very good Red Sox team to one run with no walks and five hits through six innings. He also struck out seven in that game. Now he’s going to face a Royals team that is so much worse offensively.

On the other hand, it’s going to be Zack Greinke for the Royals. Greinke, dating back to last year has a 4.54 xFIP with just 16.2% strikeouts. His prime days are over and now he’s getting smacked around by righties, who have a .346 wOBA and ISo of .212 dating back to last season.

The Twins’ offense hasn’t been great either but I believe in them more than the Royals in today’s game.

Bet: Twins (-125 at DraftKings) 

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Author: Micheal May