Today’s baseball will feature many rubber matches and series clinchers for everyone’s first series to start the MLB season. Now that we’ve played some games, we’re getting lower-quality pitchers on the mound. If you know me, I love attacking those players and hitting the over repeatedly.
Here are my top three picks for today’s Sunday slate. Remember, every game but one is a day game on Sundays.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Oakland Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies First Five Team Total (2.5, -140)
I’m not going to sit here and talk about Athletics pitcher Daulton Jefferies like I know much about him. However, I know that in 2021, Jefferies had an xFIP of 5.12 with just 13.8% strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ lineup has improved this season with the addition of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, along with young players like Bryson Stott and Matt Vierling.
Against righties, this Phillies projected lineup had a .250 ISO with a wOBA of .363 against righties last season. The Phillies are very dangerous this season.
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Over 2.5 F5 Team Total (-140 at DraftKings)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Run Line (-1.5, -120)
Spencer Howard will get the call for the Rangers for tonight’s game. Howard had a 5.21 xFIP with 11.3% walks last season, 37.4% ground balls, and 23.7% line drives. Lefties hit a .332 wOBA of a .205 ISO, while righties had a .361 wOBA and a .143 ISO.
The Blue Jays will have mostly righties in the lineup, but that should mean few walks and many opportunities to score as the projected lineup had a .214 ISO with a .340 wOBA last season against righties combined.
Also, Hyun Jin Ryu will get his first start of the season for the Blue Jays. Last year was a bit of a disappointment, but things will likely get better with fewer rules implemented via Canada. The Blue Jays walked just 6% against lefties last season as a group and struck out 24% of the time using the projected lineup. A big bounce-back season is in store for Ryu.
Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals First Five Team Total (1.5, -110)
The Cardinals have scored 15 runs in two games against the Pirates, and it’s likely only going to get worse for the Pirates. Bryse Wilson will take the mound after allowing a 5.59 xFIP and just 13.9% strikeouts in over 300 plate appearances. Wilson also induced just 38.5% ground balls and allowed just under 25% line-drive contact.
Wilson is a young pitcher with plenty of potential, but after giving up an ISO of .200 or more to both sides of the plate last year, the Cardinals should be ready and prepared.
Bet: Cardinals Over 1.5 First Five Team Total (-110 at DraftKings)
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