Now that Opening Day has concluded for every team in the MLB, we can finally start to pick on some of the lower-tier pitching in the MLB. As an over bettor myself, it’s hard to find plays going up against each ace. Today, things should get a bit easier when it comes to finding value on overs.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals Run Line (-1.5, +110)
The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be legitimate this season. The lineup is stacked with right-handed power, which doesn’t bode well for Mitch Keller of the Pirates.
Last season, Keller allowed a 5.24 xFIP with 19.6% strikeouts, and 10.4% walks. He gave up a BABIP of .392 and allowed 46% hard contact. Righties had plenty of success offensively, hitting a .368 wOBA and a .176 ISO.
With Miles Mikolas on the mound, the Cardinals have a reliable ground ball pitcher who can get outs on both sides of the plate. There’s nothing to be scared about other than Bryan Reynolds in the Pirates lineup.
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: First Five Team Total (2.5, -115)
The Tampa Bay Rays only scored two runs against the Baltimore Orioles last night. It was a weak performance going up against the worst team in baseball.
The Rays will likely get back on track when they face Jordan Lyles tonight. Last season, Lyles had a 5.03 xFIP with a 19.3% strikeout rate. Lefties hit a .335 wOBA with a .213 ISO, while righties had a .341 wOBA and an ISO of .202.
Meanwhile, last season, the Rays projected lineup hit a .205 ISO with a .331 wOBA and 10.8% walks. Strikeouts will be high for this Rays team but not against Lyles.
Bet: Rays Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-115 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs First Five Team Total (1.5, -150)
Yesterday, we attacked this game between Justin Steele and Brandon Woodruff. Despite the game being rained out, we’re getting this game again today. As stated yesterday, Steele has a lot of trouble limiting walks as he gave up 11% last season. The left-hander also allowed 38.7% hard contact and was smacked around by righties as they hit .359 wOBA with a .230 ISO.
The Brewers will likely have seven righties in the lineup. Yesterday, the submitted lineup included Andrew McCutchen leading off with Hunter Renfroe in the middle of the order. Those guys have both made a career out of destroying bad left-handed pitching.
The Brewers have always been patient at the plate and should work many walks against Steele.
Bet: Brewers Over 1.5 First Five Team Total (-150 at DraftKings)
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