Welcome to the first iteration of “K-ing the Side,” a twice-a-week look at the strikeout prop betting market and some best bets for the day.
This article will typically run on Mondays and Wednesdays and will cover my favorite bets from Draftkings and Fanduel. The concept of the article centers around the below chart. If you follow me on Twitter (@pmamminofantasy), you have seen a version of this chart before. The chart, which uses my “Data Monster” model and numbers, quantifies the impact of a pitcher and opposing offense on whiffs and in-zone swing rate.
Essentially the idea behind the numbers is to target pitchers with matchups with lots of green across the entire chart. Let’s dive into some names.
|Today’s Pitching Matchups|
|Pitcher||Opp||Pitcher In_Whiff||xWhiff||In_Whiff||Pitcher IZ||xSwing In Zone||IZ|
Max Scherzer 07.5 (-110 DK, -108 FD)
Since returning from his injury, Max Scherzer has not missed a beat. He has 31 Ks in 19.1 IP. The Atlanta Braves’ offense has a ton of pop, but their K% is 24.2% in the last 30 days is good for seventh worst. Overall their 25% K rate against RHP is the third worst in the league. The number here is high, but Scherzer should go deep enough to capitalize on this offense.
Tyler Anderson u4.5 (+120 DK, +112 FD)
Tyler Anderson has been one of the best waiver wire finds for fantasy baseball, and yet another fantastic find for the Dodgers. However, this Giants offense swings and misses less than the typical offense of late. Across the last 30 days, their offense has only a 22% K rate versus LHP, which is good for 17th in the league. This should likely be a bit higher of a total, but it’s a good bet at plus money on both sides.
Lucas Gioltio 05.5 (+115 DK, +106 FD)
This bet does not jump off the page as the Cleveland Guardians are a tough matchup for generating whiffs. They have the lowest K% in all of baseball versus RHP. However, despite all these negatives, they are a patient offense and take a lot of strikes, something Lucas Giolito has excelled at generating so far in 2022. I wish this number was slightly lower, but I will once again take the plus money and hope the patient approach puts Giolito in a good position to rack up Ks.
Other Bets of Interest
Another pitcher I like today but have not seen a prop at the time of posting is Braxton Garrett. I would likely bet the over on 4.5 and below.
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