We’ve gone 5-1 in our first six bets in the second half of the season. Today, we’ll look to keep that momentum!
Sunday’s can be a bit sneaky, with multiple players getting days off during day games. But after a full All-Star break, most players, other than catchers, will probably suit up if the matchup warrants it.
Here are my top bets for Sunday, July 24, in the MLB.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t been hitting at a superb rate this season. Both lineups will face tough pitching today, which should keep today’s game low-scoring.
Sandy Alcantara will take the hill for the Marlins. The right-hander has had a 3.32 xFIP in the last 30 days for the Marlins and has struck out 23.1% of batters. Alcantara has also induced 61.9% of ground balls when balls are batted into play in the last 30 days.
On top of that, he’s limited walks to just 3.5% of plate appearances, and he’s also allowed just 11.4% of line drives when balls are batted into play in that same time frame.
Alcantara is in a great position to win the NL Cy Young award this year. Anyway, he’s taking on a Pirates lineup with a .108 ISO and wOBA of .274 against righties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, the Marlins are hitting a .111 ISO and wOBA of .276 and will take on Mitch Keller, who has been stellar himself in the last 30 days. Keller has a 3.38 xFIP that nearly matches Alcantara in the previous 30 days. Keller has been getting a high rate of strikeouts and limiting walks well in the last 30 days. Plus, Keller has induced 56% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
Back the under.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers will send out Rony Garcia, who hasn’t been great in the last month of baseball. Garcia has a 5.98 xFIP with a low number of strikeouts and a high number of walks in the previous 30 days.
Garcia’s been worse against righties, allowing a .389 wOBA and ISO of .273 to his last 13 right-handed batters. In the Twins lineup, we’ll likely see just four right-handed batters, but righties like Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, and Gio Urshela all have potential against Garcia.
The Twins are still hitting a .198 ISO and wOBA of .340 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.
On the other hand, the Tigers are hitting a .107 ISO and wOBA of .242 against righties with nearly 26% of strikeouts. Only Eric Haase has hit a high ISO against righties in the last 30 days.
Today, the Tigers will take on Sonny Gray, who has struggled recently for the Twins. However, he’s a veteran that gets pretty streaky. Any pitcher facing a lineup like this should be able to earn some momentum moving forward.
Give me the Twins using the runline.
Bet: Twins -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Erick Fedde will get the call for the Nationals in today’s game on the West Coast. Fedde has been terrible analytically, holding a 6.43 xFIP in the last 30 days.
To make matters worse, Fedde has struck out just 14% of batters faced while walking 12.8% of batters faced in the last 30 days. He’s ultimately striking out the same out of batters that he’s walking in the previous 30 days.
Against lefties, Fedde has allowed a .365 wOBA and ISO of .297 to his last 42 plate appearances against them. Righties have a .388 wOBA and ISO of .270 in their previous 44 plate appearances against him.
Arizona has five players hitting an above-average ISO against Fedde. All five of those batters are hitting from the left side against Fedde and should be able to do plenty of damage in today’s game.
Meanwhile, Corbin Martin will make his return to the mound for Arizona. On the season, he has a 4.55 xFIP while walking 9.5% of batters.
Through 63 plate appearances on the season, Martin has given up 32.6% of line drives when balls are batted into play, which is just extremely high.
The Nationals haven’t been the best offense, but with Juan Soto and Josh Bell still slotted into the lineup, Washington can earn a couple of runs to help this game go over the total.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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