We bet on a couple of let-down spots yesterday. The Cardinals came through, but our other bets lost by one run each. The Brewers weren’t able to score a run for Brandon Woodruff, while the Blue Jays were limited to two runs in the first five innings.
That was the bad news. But the good news is we’ve got another chance to turn things around with today’s slate. Here are my favorite three bets for today’s slate in the MLB.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
You might be surprised by the direction I’m going in this game.
Mitch Keller will take the hill for the Pirates, and he’s actually been very good recently. In the last 30 days, Keller has had a 3.00 xFIP and has struck out 25.3% of batters faced. On top of that, he’s limited walks to 3% and has earned 53.6% of ground balls in that same time frame.
Let’s give him credit. He’s been very good and will take on a Phillies team that starts to get weak at the bottom of their lineup. The Phillies have struck out 22.3% of the time against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup and are hitting line drives at just a 20 percent clip when balls are batted into play.
Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez will give it a go for the Phillies. Suarez is a left-hander with a 2.91 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s also earned a 62.1 percent ground ball rate in that same span and has limited walks to 2.6% of batters faced.
The Pirates are currently striking out 28.6% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup and have also earned walks at a rate of just 5.6 percent.
Let’s take the under between two underrated pitchers.
Bet: Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres
The Minnesota Twins will send out veteran pitcher Sonny Gray for tonight’s game. Gray has a 6.07 xFIP in the last 30 days, but he’s still been able to keep the power down against both sides of the plate. His strikeouts have been a lot lower recently, but he’s taking on a Padres lineup that only has a .128 ISO and wOBA of .292 against righties in the last 30 days.
I know what they did yesterday, but I’m worried about consistent production. Not just one day of production.
On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will be taking the hill for the Padres. He might be heading onto the mound with a new five-year extension. He’s pitching against a Twins lineup that has a .173 ISO and wOBA of .311 in the last 30 days against righties.
Neither offense has been very consistent throughout the last month of baseball. With two solid veterans on the mound, I’d rather bet on the pitchers than the batters in this one.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
The Giants haven’t been all that exciting this year. They’re coming off another loss and have been hovering around .500 for most of the year.
But I still like how the Giants match up tonight. They’ll take on Drew Smyly of the Cubs, who has a 4.99 xFIP while earning just a 16.4 percent strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, the Giants have a projected lineup that has crushed lefties in the last 30 days. The projected lineup has a .281 ISO and wOBA of .373 against lefties while hitting line drives at a 23.2% clip with balls batted into play.
On the other hand, Jakob Junis will pitch for the Giants. He hasn’t been any better than Drew Smyly in terms of analytics. But he’s facing a much easier lineup in the Cubs.
The Cubs have a .139 ISO and wOBA of .316 against righties in the last 30 days. Only Willson Contreras and Christopher Morel are hitting consistent power numbers against righties. The rest of the lineup has struggled to earn extra-base hits consistently.
So let’s rock with the Giants at -135 in their home yard.
Bet: Giants (-135 at DraftKings)
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