We’re coming off a solid 2-1 day yesterday. The Brewers let us down. We had -1.5, and they won by one in extra innings.
Anyway, the name of the game is profit. We got some yesterday and will be looking to add more today.
Here are my top three MLB bets for tonight’s MLB slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers will send Michael Pineda for tonight’s game against the Twins. Pineda has had a 5.70 xFIP in the last 30 days and has rarely earned strikeouts.
The right-hander has struck out just 10.1% of batters in the last 30 days and is giving up over 26% of line drives when balls are batted into play in that same time frame. On top of that, Pineda is giving up 47.8% of hard contact in those 30 days and has been getting rocked by righties and lefties throughout the last month.
On the other hand, the Twins have so much power against righties right now. In the last 30 days, the Twins have an ISO of .209 along with a wOBA of .333 against righties using their projected lineup. Only two batters have a low ISO number against righties in this lineup. That includes Luis Arraez, an excellent contact hitter, and Gary Sanchez, who has whiffed at almost everything lately.
Minnesota is in a good position offensively. On the flip side, it’ll be Joe Ryan on the mound for Minnesota. The right-hander has struggled a bit when it comes to allowing extra-base hits, but he’s taking on a Detroit lineup with a .083 ISO and wOBA of .240 in the last 30 days against righties. Ryan should blow by this lineup.
Take the Twins at the hefty price of -175.
Bet: Twins (-175 at DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
I lost yesterday’s Milwaukee play. But I’m going back to them today. Brandon Woodruff will take the hill for the Brewers. He has a 3.76 xFIP in the last 30 days while striking out 33.7% of batters faced in that time frame.
He’s kept the power down and has limited weighted on-base averages nicely against both sides of the plate recently. Colorado has four batters striking out at least 22% of the time against righties in the last 30 days, which should help Woodruff settle in.
Meanwhile, Jose Urena will get the start for the Rockies. The right-hander has escaped so much damage recently and has pitched deeper into games. However, he will not sustain that success, knowing he has a 5.28 xFIP in the last 30 days.
In that time frame, he’s struck out 11.7% of batters faced and has walked 10.4% of batters faced.
As I acknowledged yesterday, the Brewers have plenty of power against righties, holding a .209 ISO and wOBA of .323 against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.
Take the Brewers on the runline again. This time they’re going to finish the job.
Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
The Mets will pitch Chris Bassitt, at home, in the second game of the series against the Padres. Bassitt has a 4.01 xFIP with a high ground ball rate and low line drive in the last 30 days.
Those numbers should improve against a Padres lineup with a .134 ISO and wOBA of .301 against righties in the last 30 days. The top of the San Diego order is having success, hitting a high rate of line drives. But the bottom four batters have low ISO numbers and line drive rates.
Meanwhile, lefty Blake Snell will take the hill for the Padres. He hasn’t had the best season but has been able to earn a high amount of strikeouts recently. Snell has struck out 34.4% of batters in the last 30 days but has walked 15.1% of plate appearances.
The Mets have a .143 ISO and wOBA of .311 with their projected lineup against lefties in the last 30 days. These numbers are better than their numbers against righties but still not good enough.
The Mets added left-handed hitter Daniel Vogelbach to their bench to add depth to their lineup. He won’t play today as a left-handed hitter, but it just shows you how poor the Mets have been hitting the ball lately.
I’ll take the under 7.5 in this one.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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