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Tennis tips producing 25% ROI •theBetInvestor

A Tennis tipster since July 2021, The Rolling Aces has delivered an excellent 26% ROI with 8 profitable months from 10 total months tipping – providing a 80% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 3 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £5 per day.

Skill Factor: UNCERTAIN

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.

The Rolling Aces’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 dec.places ).

This indicates its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance.

However, there’s not enough data yet to say whether this a reliable figure or not.

Losing Streaks: VERY SHORT

The all-time tip Win Rate over 361 tips has been 56%.

You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 4 losing tips.
  • Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 5 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 6 losing tips.

Risk: MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

The Rolling Aces‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.66 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

Value for Money: VERY GOOD

The Rolling Aces’s overall ROI is 26%. The monthly subscription cost to get these tips is £37. This means that each 1% of ROI costs £1.45 which is good value.

Remember, you can save some money by taking a 3-month or even 6-month subscription. The costs per month will be less and you can always cancel and get a refund should you wish.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

Using the ROI figure together with the average number of tips per day and the average advised points per tip we can get a rough estimate of how much we need to betting to at least cover the monthly subscription cost.

£1.00 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 26% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 3 points you’d need to be betting at £1.00 per point to cover the £37 subscription cost.

£3.60 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £3.60 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £20 a day.

Betting Bank: 51pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for The Rolling Aces would be around 51 points.

So, if you were betting at £3.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £200.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed The Rolling Aces for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 78% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 351 points profit versus an average loss of -172 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 88% chance you’d make a profit. You were 7 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 504 points profit versus an average loss of -344 points.

3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 623 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 9 7 2 78% 351 -172 234 2
any 2 months 8 7 1 88% 504 -344 398 1
any 3 months 7 7 0 100% 623 0 623 623
any 4 months 6 6 0 100% 773 0 773 773
any 5 months 5 5 0 100% 1006 0 1006 1006
any 6 months 4 4 0 100% 1227 0 1227 1227

Find out more about The Rolling Aces here

 

 

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Author: Micheal May