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Royals vs Astros Odds & Picks (July 7)

  • The Houston Astros are solid -350 home favorites over the Kansas City Royals in an American League game slated for Thursday, July 7
  • Houston entered play Wednesday showing a 5-1 straight up record in the past six meetings with Kansas City
  • The ROI of 30.81% for betting against the Royals is the highest margin in MLB

The vast gulf between the Kansas City Royals (29-50, 15-25 away) and Houston Astros (53-27, 26-11 home) is evident in the outcomes that arrive by wagering on the two teams.

The return on investment (ROI) for betting against the Royals is an MLB-high 30.81%. As well, the Royals are the second-best ROI to bet against in terms of the runline (17.42%).

Meanwhile, betting on Houston in the moneyline delivers the #2 ROI in baseball (14.24%). The Astros are also providing the fifth-best ROI (9.51%) when bettors play them in the runline.

Oddsmakers are following both of these trends in setting the betting line on Thursday’s game between these two American League squads. It’s the Astros who are set as solid -350 home favorites. Of Houston’s first 64 games this season, 47 have gone under. That’s the most of an MLB club.

Royals vs Astros Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Kansas City Royals +275 +1.5 (+130) O 8 (-115)
Houston Astros -350 -1.5 (-155) U 8 (-10)

Odds as of July 6th at Caesars Sportsbook. See available Caesars Sportsbook promo code. 

First pitch at Minute Maid Park is set for 2:10pm ET on Friday, July 1. Clouds are in the forecast, with 12 mph wind and a temperature of 99 degrees.

 

At odds of -350, the Astros are offering an implied probability of victory of 77.78% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Houston is going to provide a payout of $12.90.

In the MLB betting trends, the public is supporting the Astros in both the moneyline and the runline at a rate of 59%. There’s also 59% of public wagers backing the under in the total.

The MLB betting trends show that in the AL Division odds, Houston is -350 to win the AL West. Kansas City is +12000 to win the AL Central. The MLB pennant odds show the Astros at +225 to repeat as AL champs. Houston is the third betting choice at +550 in the World Series odds.

Kansas City vs Houston Probable Pitchers

Kris Bubic’s ERA is the area code for Augusta, Georgia (7.06). That’s a pretty fair indication the the Royals left-hander hasn’t quite mastered pitching in the majors.

Bubic rates among the bottom 4% of MLB pitchers in xERA (5.94), wOBA (.383), and xwOBA (.389). He’s in the bottom 6% in hard-hit percentage (46.9), the bottom 7% in xBA (.294) and xSLG (.534) and the bottom 8% in bases on balls percentage (12.6).

So he doesn’t strike out that many batters (37 in 43.1 innings) but at least he walks lots of hitters (26). Bubic is averaging 5.4 walks per nine innings.

Bubic has two starts this season where he didn’t get out of the first inning. But even though he’s 1-5 on the season, Kansas City is 5-7 in his 12 appearances. And he did pitch five scoreless innings against the Astros on June 4.

Bubic vs Verlander

1-5 Record 10-3
7.06 ERA 2.03
5.94 xERA 3.03
1.87 WHIP 0.83
1.42 SO/W Ratio 5.29

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Justin Verlander is right back in his usual place among the contenders in the AL Cy Young Award odds as the+295 second betting choice. The Astros right-hander is 4-1 in his last five starts. Verlander has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his past 10 starts. He’s lost twice since April 10.

Verlander leads the AL with 10 wins. He’s among the top 6% of big-league hurlers with a 2.34 wOBA and is in the top 8% in bases on balls percentage (4.6).

It’s his first start of the season against the Royals but Verlander has dominated Kansas City. In 45 career starts he’s 23-10 with a 3.20 ERA. He’s won more games against them than any MLB club.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Astros Batters Batting Average vs Bubic Royals Batters Batting Average vs Verlander
Jose Altuve .000 Andrew Benintendi .083
Yordan Alvarez 1.000 Hunter Dozier .000
Alex Bregman .323 Cam Gallagher .000
Mauricio Dubon .000 Kyle Isbel .000
Aledmys Diaz .000 Nicky Lopez .000
Yuli Gurriel .000 MJ Melendez .000
Korey Lee .000 Whit Merrifield .238
Martin Maldonado .000 Ryan O’Hearn .000
JJ Matijevic .000 Edward Olivares .000
Chas McCormick .000 Vinnie Pasquantino .000
Jake Meyers .000 Emmanuel Rivera .000
Jeremy Pena .400 Michael A Taylor .000
Kyle Tucker .000 Bobby Witt Jr .000

Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has only faced Bubic once but he’s a perfect 1-for-1 (1.000). Kyle Tucker is 1-for-2 (.500). Alex Bregman is 1-for-3 (.333).

Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi are the only Royals batters who’ve faced Verlander. Merrifield is batting .238 (5-for-21), while Benintendi is hitting .083 (1-for-12).

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Royals vs Astros Prediction

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, well you just gotta bet on that duck. You’ve got the Astros with Verlander on the hill facing both the team he’s owned throughout his career and the struggling Bubic.

Don’t overthink the play. This is a lopsided Astros victory screaming for a wager.

Pick: Houston Astros RL -1.5 (-155)

 

The post Royals vs Astros Odds & Picks (July 7) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author: Micheal May