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Racing Tipster 18% ROI from 2 tips a day •theBetInvestor

A Horse Racing tipster since January 2021, Cheek Pieces has delivered a very good 19% ROI with 11 profitable months from 15 total months tipping – providing a 73% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 2 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £2 per day.

Skill Factor: VERY LOW

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky or is there some skill or expertise at play here?

Cheek Pieces’s p-value is 0.0370 (to 4 dec. places) – in other words a 3.7038% probability these results are down to luck.

This indicates that it is unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..

Losing Streaks: LONG

The all-time tip Win Rate has been 24% over 15 months and 759 tips which gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 25. In other words, you should have been prepared for 25 losing tips in a row over this time.

Based on a 24% Win Rate and the current tips rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 13 losing tips.
  • During the next 3 months: At least one run of 17 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 21 losing tips.

Risk: MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Cheek Pieces‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.79 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

Value for Money: VERY GOOD

At £27 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.

Having an ROI of 19% means each 1% of ROI is costing £1.46 which which makes these tips good value.

However, a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get some money back if things don’t work out.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.£2.60 per point to cover subscription cost
Doing the calculations based on 19% ROI from 2 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 pt. you’d need to be betting at £2.60 per point just to cover the £27 subscription cost.

£12.00 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the monthly subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £12.00 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £25 a day.

Betting Bank: 60pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Cheek Pieces would be around 60 points.

So, if you were betting at £12.00/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £750.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Cheek Pieces for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 71% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 154 points profit versus an average loss of -87 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. You were 12 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 1 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 182 points profit versus an average loss of -199 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 92% chance you’d make a profit. You were 11 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 2 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 265 points profit versus an average loss of -135 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 14 10 4 71% 154 -87 85 1
any 2 months 13 12 1 92% 182 -199 152 0
any 3 months 12 11 1 92% 265 -135 231 1
any 4 months 11 11 0 100% 321 0 321 321
any 5 months 10 10 0 100% 426 0 426 426
any 6 months 9 9 0 100% 538 0 538 538

Find out more about Cheek Pieces here

 

 

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Author: Micheal May