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profits from horse racing tips •theBetInvestor

A Professional Horse racing Tipster since 10th March 2019, WANNAWINBM has delivered a very good 13% ROI with 27 profitable months from 35 total months tipping – providing a 77% chance of having a profitable month.

On average there’s 4 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £40 per day.

Skill Factor: AVERAGE

The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.

WANNAWINBM’s p-value is 0.0075 (to 4 dec.places ).

This indicates its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..

Losing Streaks: VERY LONG

The tip Win Rate has been 12% over 3803 tips. This gives a very high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 65 – in those 3803 tips you should have been prepared for 65 losing tips in a row.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 33 losing tips.
  • Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 41 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 48 losing tips.

Risk: MEDIUM

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

WANNAWINBM‘s coefficient of variation figure is 2.46 indicating performance is reasonably stable – risk is acceptable.

Value for Money: GOOD

At £29 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.

Having an ROI of 13% means each 1% of ROI is costing £2.27 which which makes these tips around average value.

However, a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get some money back if things don’t work out.

Staking Levels: REASONABLE

Knowing the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what ROI is going to be. It might even be negative – a losing month.

But doing the calculation can provide an indication of the scale of betting levels – will it be something like £10 a day or more like £100 a day.

£0.20 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 13% ROI from 4 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10.5 points you’d need to be betting at £0.20 per point to cover the £29 monthly subscription cost.

£0.90 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make around £100 clear profit a month the staking levels would need to be in the region of £0.90 per point. At this level you’d be betting about £40 a day.

Betting Bank: 1625pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for WANNAWINBM would be around 1625 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.90/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £1400.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed WANNAWINBM for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 77% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 3 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 840 points profit versus an average loss of -264 points.

2 MONTH: Following for 2 months at any time since the service started there was a 79% chance you’d make a profit. You were 4 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any two months and your profit would have been 4 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1603 points profit versus an average loss of -398 points.

3 MONTH: If you’d followed for 3 months at any time since the service started there was a 91% chance you’d make a profit. You were 10 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any 3 months and your profit would have been 6 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 1974 points profit versus an average loss of -346 points.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 35 27 8 77% 840 -264 587 3
any 2 months 34 27 7 79% 1603 -398 1191 4
any 3 months 33 30 3 91% 1974 -346 1763 5
any 4 months 32 32 0 100% 2296 0 2296 2296
any 5 months 31 31 0 100% 2824 0 2824 2824
any 6 months 30 30 0 100% 3381 0 3381 3381

Find out more about WANNAWINBM here

 

 

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Author: Micheal May