MLB Home Run Derby Long-Shot Winner Odds & Picks (2022)

With baseball being in the news for all of the wrong reasons to start the season out, it is nice to be able to see the personalities of some of the league’s brightest stars has to showcase. We stop the season to honor the greatest players that we have in the game today, and rightfully so, name something harder than hitting in sports? I’ll wait. In all seriousness, I think the league is in a precarious place in terms of public support, but the true fans love the players and know they deserve a weekend like this.


Out of the field of eight participants, Pete Alonso comes in as the favorite, as he has 2/1 odds to bring home his third straight Home Run Derby title. However, I think that his opponent is getting slept on a little bit on the books, as Ronald Acuna Jr. is priced at +600 or tied for third with the same odds as Nationals OF Juan Soto. The reason why I think that he is underpriced is that he is only +150 to beat Alonso in the first round. If he beats the favorite, which I predict to happen, he will not have tough competition like to get to the final. I am not saying that Alonso should give in at all, but I think Acuna could take him down!

Between the two of them, the career difference is only 17 homers, and with this season and half of last being lost to his torn ACL, the number may be identical, or with Ronald having more, Acuna is back for his fifth time participating. He just can’t get enough. He shows the ability to hit to all fields for power and seems poised to go for a serious run if he can get past the Polar Bear. Ronald Acuna Jr. also has no problem hitting homers a VERY long way, as he has the third-most home runs in MLB at over 440+ feet. Because of this, he should get all the time to put up a huge number in the first round, making it very hard to catch him!

Dark Horse: Corey Seager +950

Corey Seager has all of the makings of a champion that nobody saw coming. The former team nostalgia of the ballpark, the sheer skill as a power hitter, and him only being the slightest dog possible against a rookie in Julio Rodriguez. People tend to lean toward people who they find exciting, and I think these two will have a great round, one that may be decided in a swing-off. Seager signed with Texas this off-season and has hit 22 homers to this point of the year.

Pick Recap & Strategy: Ronald Acuna to win for 2U and .5U on Corey Seager to win

In plays like this, I like to have my hedge in place as a true dark horse because I feel like it makes it easier to stay engaged as you make money if one of 25% of the contestants wins!


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Author: Micheal May