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Leafs vs Lightning Odds and Picks – Toronto Listed as Road Underdogs as Ontario Sports Betting Goes Live

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, April 4th
  • The Maple Leafs are listed as small road underdogs in the Monday NHL odds
  • Read below for Leafs vs Lightning odds, picks and prediction

Two of the titans in the NHL’s Atlantic Division square off on Monday, April 4th. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena (7:30 PM EST). NHL Network will carry the broadcast. The Maple Leafs are listed as road underdogs in the Leafs vs Lightning Monday NHL odds

The game coincides with the official launch of Ontario online sports betting. Bettors living in Ontario can legally wager on the Toronto Maple Leafs beginning Monday.

Let’s take a look at the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds and offer you our NHL best bet prediction.

Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Game Time Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Monday, Apr. 4 Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) O 6.5 (-105) +110
7:30 pm ET Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+180) U 6.5 (-115) -130

Odds as of  April 3rd at Caesars Sportsbook

Ontario online sports betting markets list the Leafs at -220 odds on the puckline, while the Lightning are +180 to win by two or more goals. Tampa Bay’s -130 moneyline price means they have 56.52% implied probability to win.

Leafs Listed as Underdogs in Monday NHL Odds

The Maple Leafs are listed as underdogs for just the fifth time this season on Monday against the Lightning. Toronto’s +110 moneyline prices means they have a 48% implied probability to win the game. Toronto brings a four-game winning streak into Monday’s contest.

The Maple Leafs sit just outside the top-five in the latest Stanley Cup odds at +1200. The Lightning have slightly better odds to win it all at +900. Toronto’s biggest strength is their offense, which has scored at least six goals in three straight games.

Although Toronto and Tampa Bay have nearly identical records, the home-ice advantage for Tampa is important for this matchup. The Maple Leafs are only 19-12-2 as the road team, while boasting a much better 25-7-2 record at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

There are some important injury notes for Toronto entering Monday. While starting goalie Jack Campbell is back healthy, the team remains without forward Ondrej Kase and defenseman Jake Muzzin. Star forward William Nylander is also questionable with an illness.

Lightning Betting Value as Home Favorites

Tampa Bay is favored to beat the Maple Leafs on Monday primarily due to the location of the game. The Bolts have been excellent at Amalie Arena this season, posting a 21-6-5 home record. The Lightning have won four of their past five games entering Monday.

Although the Bolts have managed only one loss in their past five, that defeat did come in their most recent contest Saturday. Tampa lost 5-4 in a shootout to a Montreal team already eliminated from playoff contention. The Lightning blew a two-goal lead at Amalie Arena.

Tampa Bay’s offense is quite as dynamic as Toroto’s, but they are better defensively. The Bolts are only allowing 2.75 goals per game, which is eighth best in the NHL. The Leafs are allowing over three goals per game. Tampa’s only notable injury is to Ryan McDonagh (upper body).

The Lightning started backup goalie Brian Elliott on Saturday, meaning all-star Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected to get the start Monday. Vasilevskiy is 35-14-4 with a .919 save percentage and 2.37 GAA. The Tampa netminder is the fifth favorite in the Vezina odds.

2022 NHL Playoff Bracket: Projected Teams, Seeds & Schedule

Leafs vs Lightning Pick & Prediction

The Maple Leafs are sure to be a popular underdog play in the Monday NHL odds with Ontario Sports Betting going live. But are they actually a smart bet to defeat the Lightning? Recent history for Leafs vs Lightning does show that Toronto has won three of the past four meetings.

Leafs vs Lightning Recent Results

Date Home-Away Money Line Puck Line Over/Under
12/09/2021 TOR 3 – TBL 5 TBL TBL Over
11/04/2021 TOR 2 – TBL 1 OT TOR TBL Under
03/10/2020 TOR 2 – TBL 1 TOR TBL Under
02/25/2020 TBL 3 – TOR 4 TOR TOR Over
10/10/2019 TOR 3 – TBL 7 TOR TBL Over

Betting against Tampa at home is tough, but several advanced metrics, including corsi and high-danger chances, indicate Toronto has been playing the better hockey over the past month. Getting starting goalie Jack Campbell back is also a big bonus for Toronto.

Here are some betting trends to note for Leafs vs Lightning:

  • Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Lightning are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning % above .600
  • Road team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings

The Lightning have struggled in recent games against elite competition, while the Leafs have been getting the job done. Take advantage of Toronto’s plus-money underdog price with Ontario online sports betting now live.

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+110)

The post Leafs vs Lightning Odds and Picks – Toronto Listed as Road Underdogs as Ontario Sports Betting Goes Live appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author: Micheal May