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Houston Texans NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & Best Bet (2022)

The summer is here, and the start of the NFL season will be here before we know it. Now is the time to start digging into NFL futures, both for team futures and player futures. NFL futures can be great ways to profit during the upcoming season. We’ll have you covered throughout the offseason with updated news and odds for all futures and Week 1 odds. Let’s take a look at updated 2022 NFL team win totals and futures odds.

Team Betting Previews

NFL Futures Odds

Check out our NFL Futures Betting Guide >>

What are Team Futures?

Futures refers to any team-based wager for a future event or a result. These bets often do not pay out until weeks or even months from when they are originally placed. Bets for Win Totals and the Super Bowl winner are good examples of team futures bets.

It has been a chaotic offseason in Houston, but in the vacuum of football moves, they’ve had a quietly productive last few months. The Deshaun Watson trade worked out about as well as GM Nick Caserio could have hoped, as he was able to get out from under a large cap number while picking up a massive amount of draft capital. Houston didn’t make any big splashes in free agency (not surprising for a team that isn’t in “win-now” mode. They did, however, make some low-risk moves that should provide immediate upgrades (or at a minimum, depth) across both the offensive and defensive lines.

Between these signings and a draft that was loved by experts (Derek Stingley, Kenyon Green, John Metchie, and more), Houston has taken some nice steps toward building a supporting cast for promising young QB Davis Mills.

Add in new head coach Lovie Smith, and there is a path to improvement for the Texans in 2022.

Houston Texans Super Bowl Odds: +30000

 

While the Texans have a young QB in Mills who could lead the team to some success if he can improve on last year’s solid rookie season, a Super Bowl championship in Houston this year seems like it may be a reach goal, to say the least. The AFC is deep this year, with nine teams owning preseason win total forecasts that would land them over .500. In contrast, Houston’s 4.5 win total is the lowest in the conference. 

Even if Houston can find a way to get hot and sneak into the playoffs, the prospect of likely needing to win multiple road playoff games is going to be dicey for a young QB. With a matchup against Brady, Stafford, or Rodgers waiting on the other side of that hypothetical run, I’m staying off the Texans’ Super Bowl future, even at +30000 odds.

Houston Texans Conference Winner Odds: +15000

 

For the reasons laid out above, a conference title for Houston in 2022 also seems like a bet not worth making. Houston’s extreme bull case would still land them needing to win multiple road games against superior QBs to get to the Super Bowl. While the Bengals pulled off a similar run in last year’s playoffs, I wouldn’t bet on lightning striking twice in the AFC. Fade the Texans’ conference championship odds at +15000.

Houston Texans Division Winner Odds: +3000

 

The case against the Texans making/winning the Super Bowl is based mostly around the dominant teams in the AFC that they would have to play on the way there. Coincidentally, however, none of these teams happen to reside in the AFC South with Houston. In fact, each team in the division has major question marks, and there’s no home-run play to take home the division this year.

  • Indianapolis is the favorite to win the AFC South in 2022 after coming off a disappointing finish to the 2021 season where they missed the playoffs altogether. They’ve added Matt Ryan in the offseason to try and stabilize the QB position, however, Ryan actually had a lower QB Rating in Atlanta last year than Carson Wentz did in Indianapolis. There’s plenty of context worth mentioning for Ryan last year — an inferior OL, injuries to major weapons, and lack of a consistent run game. That said, it’s not a sure thing that the 37-year-old Ryan will provide a major upgrade at QB this season.
  • Tennessee won the division in 2021, but since then has had a confusing offseason. Their biggest free-agent addition (other than re-signings) was TE Austin Hooper — a solid pickup, but not the sort of player that’s going to take them over the top. On draft night, the Titans made one of the bigger trades of the offseason by sending top WR A.J. Brown to Philadelphia. In exchange, they received the draft pick used on Arkansas WR Treylon Burks. Burks is a great prospect, but even if he has a great rookie year, it’s hard to see a scenario where he’s a better short-term option than Brown. With star RB Derrick Henry coming off a broken foot, the Titans aren’t a lock to have a winning record in 2022.
  • Jacksonville had a big offseason. It included big free-agent signings, the top overall pick in the draft, and — most importantly — the hiring of Doug Pederson to replace Urban Meyer. If Trevor Lawrence can see a big jump in his second season with a new coach, Jacksonville could actually be a pretty dangerous team this year. That said, they’re nothing more than a dart throw to actually win the AFC South in 2022.

Given these question marks, as well as the possible upside of QB Davis Mills, the +3000 price you can get on Houston to win the AFC South is a nice bet. If you’re looking for longshot division winners in 2022, you can do a lot worse than rolling with the Texans in what might be the worst division in the NFL this year.

Houston Texans To Make Playoffs Odds: Yes +1600/No -2000

 

The last section discussed how Houston had the upside to win the division. With a deep AFC, this is a more likely scenario than them grabbing a Wild Card spot. Other divisions in the AFC have multiple very good teams — the entire AFC West could make the playoffs, the AFC North should send at least two teams with Cincinnati and Baltimore, and the AFC East has a couple of teams that could threaten to make a Wild Card berth with New England and Miami.

Realistically, the clearest path to the playoffs for Houston is to win their division. Given that, I don’t see value in betting them to make the playoffs at +1600, when you can get almost double those odds on them to win their division.

Houston Texans Win Total O/U: 4.5 (+100 O/-120 U)

 

I’ve laid out a case for Houston to surprise people this season — a second-year jump from Davis Mills, improvement in the trenches, and immediate contribution from their draft picks.

Unfortunately, not every team can see their bull case play out…and Houston’s bear case is pretty ugly. A more realistic outlook is Davis Mills continuing to show some flashes while struggling to singlehandedly carry a not-too-talented roster to anything more than a subpar season.

Factor in a tough schedule — the Texans could lose all eight games across their AFC West and NFC East matchups alone — and five wins for Houston feels like it could be optimistic. I’d play the under on 4.5 wins for Houston, even at the -120 price.

Favorite Houston Texans Futures Bet: Division Championship +3000

While it’s very likely the Texans struggle in 2022, there are surprise teams every year that come out of nowhere to steal their division. The AFC South seems like it could be one of these divisions this year — with each team having their own issues and question marks, nine or 10 wins could be enough to take this division.

With some young talent on both sides of the ball, Houston has a path to being better than most people think. If they can have some luck go their way this year and stay healthy, a winning record isn’t an impossible outcome for them. At +3000 for a Texans division title, it’s absolutely a bet worth making.

Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>

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The post Houston Texans NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & Best Bet (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.

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Author: Micheal May