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Free racing tips producing 25% ROI •theBetInvestor

A Free Horse racing Tipster since 20th October 2021, ARC-ratings has delivered an excellent 27% ROI with 8 profitable months from 8 total months tipping.

On average there are 2 to 3 tips per day typically advised at 1pt each-way i.e. 2 pt. total which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £6 per day.

Skill Factor: ACCEPTABLE

ARC-ratings‘s statistical p-value is 0.0356 ( to 4 decimal places ). The lower the p-value is the less likely the results could be produced by chance. This figure indicates there’s a low probability these results could be achieved by pure chance.

Losing Streaks: LONG

The tip Win Rate has been 28% over 649 tips. This gives a high ELLR (Estimated Longest Losing Run) figure of 20 – in those 649 tips you should have been prepared for 20 losing tips in a row.

Based on the current ROI and tip rate you should anticipate encountering the following:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 14 losing tips.
  • In the next 3 months: At least one run of 17 losing tips.
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 19 losing tips.

Risk: LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.The coefficent of variation puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

ARC-ratings’s coefficient of variation figure is 1.13 indicating performance is reasonably stable and risk is low.

Value for Money: FREE TIPSTER

Currently a free tipster it costs nothing to follow these tips.

However with this degree of success I don’t see these tips remaining free for too long.

Staking Levels: LOW

If you know the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.

The trouble is that you don’t know what these will be.

The advised stakes might stay fixed but you cannot know how many tips will be published or what the ROI for the month is going to be. But doing the calculation can give you an idea of the scale of betting levels – will it be £10 a day or £100 a day.

£2.10 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, the staking levels would need to be around £2 – £2.50 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £15 a day.

Betting Bank: 100pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR) which, in turn, is based on the Win Rate of the tipster’s bets.

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for ARC-ratings would be 100 points.

So, if you were betting at £2.50/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank should be around £300.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 104 points profit.

2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 195 points profit.

3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 279 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 8 8 0 100% 104 0 104 104
any 2 months 7 7 0 100% 195 0 195 195
any 3 months 6 6 0 100% 279 0 279 279
any 4 months 5 5 0 100% 366 0 366 366
any 5 months 4 4 0 100% 458 0 458 458
any 6 months 3 3 0 100% 559 0 559 559

Find out more about ARC-ratings here

 

 

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Author: Micheal May