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Francisco Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Semifinals

  • Unseeded Francisco Cerundolo and No. 6 seed Casper Ruud are a surprise semifinal at the Miami Open
  • Cerundolo, ranked No. 103 coming in, has had a run of great fortune with injured opponents
  • Ruud is the obvious favorite; we break down the matchup and look for value

The bottom half of the Miami Open draw was seeded to have No. 2 Alexander Zverev square off against No. 4 Matteo Berrettini or No. 5 Andrey Rublev in the semifinals.

And then … things happened.

Instead, it’s No. 6 seed Casper Ruud against the unseeded Francisco Cerundolo, with Daniil Medvedev still the overwhelming favorite to win it all.

Cerundolo vs Rublev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) +4.5 (+120) +420 O 20.5 (-125)
[6] Casper Ruud (NOR) -4.5 (-150) -600 U 20.5 (-105)

Odds as of March 31 at Caesars Sportsbook

Rublev went out early against the dangerous Nick Kyrgios.

Berrettini withdrew very, very late with a hand injury he ended up having minor surgery on a few days ago. The lucky loser, Kevin Anderson, who lives only an hour away, found out at the last minute he was in. And while he won his opener, Anderson ended up being beaten in the second round by Cerundolo’s younger brother Juan Manuel.

And then, the retirements.

You Have to Be Lucky to Be Good

It takes nothing away from Cerundolo’s dream run to the semifinals of a Masters 1000 to point out that he’s had some significantly lucky breaks along the way.

In most of his matches, there have been extenuating circumstances that helped him get through players ranked much higher than he is.

Seriously, you have to hope he went out to buy some Powerball tickets.

Cerundolo was beaten in the first round of qualifying at Indian Wells by teenaged wild card Jerry Shang. He had never won an ATP Tour-level main-draw match on hard courts before this week.

Cerundolo’s Miami Open Opponents

Player Score Issues
[9] Jannik Sinner (QF) 4-1 retd Sinner retired with foot blisters after just five games
[28] Frances Tiafoe (R16) 6-7 (2), 7-6 (3), 6-2 Major back woes for Tiafoe, who did finish the match
[22] Gaël Monfils (R32) 6-2, 6-3 Off-court concerns had Monfils playing like his plane was waiting
[16] Reilly Opelka 6-1, 3-1 retd Right shoulder issue and retirement
Tallon Griekspoor 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 Fair-and-square first career hard-court ATP victory

In the meanwhile, Ruud has found the slowish courts in Miami very much to his liking.

Ruud Rolls to Semifinals

The 23-year-old from Norway faced one of the last direct entries into the draw, Henri Laaksonen. Then he faced the always dangerous Alexander Bublik, who wasn’t dangerous on the day.

Then he impressed in getting through the tough out that is Cameron Norrie 6-3, 6-4.

In the quarterfinals, he faced a diminished Zverev, who has had some tape on the back of his neck for a few days but also reportedly had been under the weather for a few days.

Still, Zverev played and competed hard. Ruud was just too solid for him in a 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 victory.

Cerundolo vs Ruud Head-to-Head

23 (Aug. 13, 1998) Age 23 (Dec. 22, 1998)
Buenos Aires, Argentina Birthplace Oslo, Norway
6-1 Height 6-0
0 Career ATP Singles Titles 7
0 Career Grand Slam Singles Titles 0
No. 76 (Feb. 21, 2022) Career High Ranking No. 8 (Oct. 25, 2021)
No. 103 Current Ranking No. 8
$535,751 Career Prize Money $5,204,219
10-4 2021 Won/Loss record 12-3
0 Career Head to Head 0

It stands to reason, of course, that Ruud is a massive favorite in this match.

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Can Confidence Help Cerundolo Soar?

There are two ways of looking at this. The first is that Cerundolo’s career-changing run in Miami will give him wings, make him believe he can beat even a top-10 player in good form.

The more logical take is that Ruud, who to this point has won only smaller tournaments, and mostly on his preferred clay, sees an inexperienced, unseeded player in the way of his making a Masters 1000 final.

You couldn’t draw up a more ideal scenario. And Ruud isn’t likely to waste that opportunity.

Ruud has taken the forehand he mashes in practice (but too often tempers in matches) and brought it to the slow hard court, with great effect.

We’re looking at a 6-3 first set for Ruud (+300), and under 20.5 games (-105).

Ruud also should win in straight sets (-210).

As surprising as Cerundolo’s run has been so far, it hasn’t been because he’s played good enough tennis to shock the world and win the tournament.

Best Bet: Ruud and 4.5 games (-150)

The post Francisco Cerundolo vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Miami Open Semifinals appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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Author: Micheal May