Oliveira Green Arrow UFC 280

Charles Oliveira UFC 280 Betting Odds Continue to Shorten

Oliveira Green Arrow UFC 280

  • Charles Oliveira’s betting odds against Islam Makhachev continue to improve.
  • Oliveira opened at +345 odds but is now down to -190 in the latest BetOnline odds board.
  • Do Bronx has won 11 consecutive bouts including 10 via stoppage.

The odds continue to move in Charles Oliveira’s favor.

Islam Makhachev opened as a massive -415 betting favorite to beat Oliveira last February. Those odds drifted to -215 last week. As of Sunday, July 24th, Makhachev’s odds are down to -190.

Meanwhile, Oliveira opened at +345 odds. The Brazilian saw his price improve to +215 last week. Do Bronx is currently listed at +162 odds at the BetOnline App.

Oliveira Has Won 11 in a Row

Many were surprised to see Oliveira open as a heavy underdog against Makhachev. While the Dagestani has made a good case for himself to fight for the title, Oliveira has cemented himself as the best lightweight on the planet with 11 consecutive victories, including 10 via stoppage, with only Tony Ferguson going the distance with him during that stretch. Interestingly, however, the odds have not painted Oliveira to be that dominant.

During that 11-bout winning run, Oliveira has opened as a betting underdog nine times but his shortest odds were just at -305 when he fought Jared Gordon in 2019. In six of those fights, Do Bronx opened at odds shorter than -200, including at +110 against Ferguson and +145 against Dustin Poirier. He also closed as an underdog thrice: at +120 opposite Poirier, at +161 versus Ferguson, and +125 against Kevin Lee.

However, to say that Oliveira has been dominant during his run to the UFC lightweight title is an understatement. Out of the 10 stoppage wins, 8 did not last more than 10 minutes and four, including Gaethje the last time out at UFC 274 did not even hear the end of the first round horn. Three out of the last seven wins were by KO, meaning Oliveira has also been impressive on the feet and not just with his submission game.

Makhachev 10 Straight Wins

Like Oliveira, Makhachev won double-digit bouts in a row with 10. The 30-year-old from Dagestan has moved from being a prospect that fought like Khabib Nurmagomedov to a legitimate title contender who could end up as the UFC lightweight champion like the fighter he is compared to. There’s no question that Makhachev is good. But is he good enough to beat Oliveira? The oddsmakers think so.

Since 2018, Makhachev has not opened at odds less than -270. In fact, during that stretch, he‘s opened at odds longer than -400 only twice: at -270 against Gleison Tibau and at -300 against Dan Hooker. During four instances, he even opened at odds -475 or better and has closed at -500 four times, including twice at least -700. The lopsided odds were not Makhachev’s fault, however.

While Oliveira fought killers during his 11-bout winning streak, Makhachev started from the bottom and was matched up against unranked fighters during the beginning of his winning run. In fact, the biggest name on Makhachev’s resume is Dan Hooker who has never fought for a belt. Oliveira meanwhile, has beaten fighters no. 2,3, and 5 in the UFC lightweight rankings, doing so in succession. Makhachev, at no. 4 could be next.

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Author: Micheal May