Here’s our betting guide for Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. Check out our preview, top picks, prop bets, parlays, and first basket bet for tonight’s game.
Boston Celtics Game 6 Preview
The Celtics lost consecutive games for the first time this postseason in Game 5, as Jayson Tatum led all scorers with 27 points and 10 rebounds. Jaylen Brown added another 18 but started the evening going 2 for 11, missing all five three-point attempts on the night.
Even still, the Celtics rode a 35-point third-quarter performance to pull within a point heading into the final quarter before they cooled late and could not keep up with the Warriors’ offense. Away from TD Garden, Defensive Player of the Year struggled all night, grounding out 20 points but constantly frustrated on both sides of the ball, picking up a technical foul in the process.
Golden State Warriors Game 6 Preview
In the most clutch performance of his career, Andrew Wiggins lifted the Warriors in Game 5, scoring 26 points and grabbing 13 boards as he took another step in becoming the solidified #2 option on this team. Stephen Curry failed to make a three-pointer for the first time in his NBA-best 132-game run, going 0-9 from deep.
For the Warriors’ other sharpshooter, Monday marked three years to the date since he tore his Achilles, scoring 21 points and going 5 of 11 from deep as the Warriors cruised to a 104-94 win after a strong fourth quarter.
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 6: NBA Finals Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks
Leg #1. Warriors ML
I suspected it going into Game 5, and even more so in Game 6, Robert Williams III surgically repaired knee had been to the key the Celtics’ early success in this series, and as it’s deteriorated, so has their chances. Playing 30 minutes in Game 5, the Celtics lacked their intensity late as their athleticism was diminished and the Warriors’ multiple scoring threats were just too much.
The Warriors have also gotten a defensive boost in the form of Gary Payton II, whose minutes have increased throughout the series as he played 26 in Game 5, picking up 15 points in the process. Winning 104-94 on Monday despite Stephen Curry going 0-9 from deep, I like another concerted effort on defense from the Warriors in this one as they appeared to figure something out in their rotations over the past two games. Smelling blood in the water, look for the Warriors to close it out tonight in Boston.
Leg #2. Jayson Tatum has 30+ Points
Averaging 26.2 points this postseason, Tatum has been the glue for a Celtics team who has found a way to get it done for nearly two months now. Unfortunately, it appears to have worn them down, but I still expect Tatum to put on one final show tonight at the TD Garden.
While I don’t expect it to be enough unless teammate Jaylen Brown has the performance of a lifetime, I do like for Tatum to get his and eclipse the 30-point mark as he channels his inspiration, Kobe Bryant, one final time in front of his home fans.
Leg #3. Klay Thompson has 20+ Points
Paging Game 6 Klay.
In the stuff of legend, Thompson has affectionately earned the nickname of coming up with one great Game 6 performance after another over the years and that’s exactly what I’m calling for tonight. Already averaging 19.4 points per game this postseason, his 39.1% from three-point bests Curry by 0.1%, and he hasn’t even had a Game 6 yet.
Over the course of his postseason career, Thompson has averaged 39.1% from three-point range, but in Game 6’s that number moves to a staggering 49.5%. With a chance to pick up their fourth championship in eight seasons and the dynasty to officially be back on track, I expect another big game from Game 6 Klay.
Total Odds: +800 at DK Sportsbook
The Celtics have had trouble with turnovers a few times during the playoffs and that’s what did them in Game 5. They committed nine turnovers in the first half that resulted in 13 Warriors points, 18 overall, and are 1-7 this postseason when they turn the ball over 16 or more times. Jayson Tatum has been the worst, not this year, but in playoffs history, as he beat Lebron James’ record of 94 in 2018 with 95 turnovers. This must be cleaned up if they want a shot at extending this series.
What has to give the Warriors confidence is they didn’t need to rely on Steph Curry to be the offense as he had zero three-pointers for the first time in 132 career playoff games. Instead, Andrew Wiggins, who many scratched their head when Golden State traded for him, had another great game with 26 points and 13 rebounds, giving him a double-double in back-to-back games. They also had significant contributions from the bench: Gary Payton II had 15 points in 26 minutes and Jordan Poole 14 points in 14 minutes. If they can get plus point differentials with their second unit in, that’s huge as the Celtics’ bench has been playing well throughout the playoffs.
The Celtics’ problems are easily correctable and they’ve done it in the past. Their defense is still playing well as they held the Warriors to 9-40 from three and were also able to out-rebound them.
It’s also hard to trust Golden State in these situations, as they always seem to cringe when they have a close-out game on the road. In all three of the past series, they could have ended a series on the road and are 0-3, including that 39-point loss in Memphis.
The Celtics have been in this situation before and have found ways to regroup against outstanding opponents. You saw some unusually bad games from Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and even the bench didn’t contribute as they have. This will be a much better-executed performance at home to force a winner-take-all.
Leg 1: Celtics ML
Point Total O/U 210
The Celtics did a great job pressuring Curry in Game 5, but one of the greatest shooters of all isn’t putting up another goose egg from behind the arc.
Jaylen Brown also had a bad game shooting 5-18 and 0-5 from three. He’s always bounced back from a lousy game throughout the playoff and should do the same on Thursday.
Lastly, the Celtics bench should play better after scoring just 10 points. They’ve always had someone to rely on throughout the series, whether it’s Grant Williams or Derrick White, and one or both will have a better game.
There are too many factors not to believe this will be a higher-scoring game. The total for Game 3 was 214, and after two low-scoring games, this is part of an over-adjustment. It’ll be good to take advantage of it.
Leg 2: Over 210
Jaylen Brown Point Total O/U 24.5
As previously mentioned, Brown didn’t play well in Game 5. He’s always been able to bounce back after a bad performance — during this postseason, he has scored under 20 points five times previous to Monday, and in all five, he’s scored 24 or more points in the next game. Boston isn’t going to shy away from him after one bad game. Golden State did a better job putting pressure on the front court, but Boston will adjust to give Brown better looks.
Leg 3: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points
Total Parlay Odds: +374 on FanDuel
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Best NBA First Basket Props Odds & Picks
After losing in Game 4, Draymond Green won the opening tip-off in Game 5. Robert Williams’ track record is far substantial in opening tips as he’s just shy of 60% in the playoffs. He’ll get that first possession for Boston in their elimination game.
The Celtics are the best team this season at grabbing the first basket with a 62% hit rate, while Golden State is well-below average at just 40%. You would suspect the opposite as the Warriors have knocked down the first points in four of the five games of this series.
Jaylen Brown is coming off a rough game, and he’s going to look for redemption and plenty of scoring chances. He has been the guy throughout the season and the playoffs to get the offense started. He leads the team by taking 31% of their first field goals and 24% of the game’s first basket.
First basket: Jaylen Brown +370
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 6: Top NBA Finals Prop Odds & Picks
Celtics vs. Warriors: Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Three-pointers
Despite Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins going 0-for-15 from downtown combined, Klay Thompson helped the Warriors from deep, hitting 5-of-11 from downtown in Game 5.
Thompson has four three-pointers in each of his last three games while shooting at least 10 threes per game. If he’s going to take 10 threes again, we need him to nail four of them and hit them at 40%. He’s shooting 35.9% in the Finals and had one game where he went 1-for-8, which is the outlier and the reason why he’s not hitting 40% from downtown.
Therefore, I like Thompson to nail at least four three-pointers again in Game 6.
Bet: Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Three-pointers (-142 via FanDuel)
Celtics vs. Warriors: Andrew Wiggins Over 7.5 Rebounds
Andrew Wiggins was likely told to be more aggressive on the glass. He has 29 rebounds in his last two games and has been the x-factor for the Warriors, helping lead them into Game 6 with a 3-2 advantage. When he’s dominant on the offensive end and grabbing a ton of rebounds, the Warriors have more success.
Wiggins is averaging 9.4 rebounds per game in the NBA Finals and is coming off two straight games where he played 43 minutes per night. Wiggins has stayed out of foul trouble and rarely says anything throughout the game. Wiggins, who was once labeled a bust, will do whatever he can to get his first NBA Championship. If that means grabbing eight boards, he’ll do it.
Bet: Andrew Wiggins Over 7.5 Rebounds (-132 via FanDuel)
Celtics vs. Warriors: Jayson Tatum Over 42.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
I’m going all-in on Jayson Tatum. In a do-or-die game, Tatum is going to have to step up. Tatum is averaging 23.2 points per game along with 7.6 rebounds and seven assists per game in the NBA Finals. Those averages turn in about 38 points, rebounds, and assists. But in a must-win situation, Tatum should be able to add more points to the box score.
I think Tatum goes for 30 points in Game 6 at home, with the entire season on the line. He’ll also be more active on the glass. He’s now added 10 or more rebounds in the last two games. Therefore, if he’s earning 30 or more points and 10 or more rebounds, he’ll easily get over this 42.5 marker with three assists, as he’s averaging seven assists per game.
Bet: Jayson Tatum Over 42.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (-113 via FanDuel)
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 6: Top NBA Finals Betting Odds & Picks
#1. Warriors +4 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
In the true mark of a champion, with the Warriors, if its not one thing its another. While going just 9 of 40 from the field in Game 5, the Warriors buckled down on the defensive front keeping Boston to just 94 points on the night which included only 39 in the first half.
In Stephen Curry’s worst performance from deep (0 for 9) of his postseason career, he contributed more so on the defensive end and added eight assists as teammates Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins carried the load offensively. For Wiggins, the first-time NBA All-Star, it was the performance of a lifetime scoring 26 points and 13 rebounds as he further stamped his position as the #2 most critical player on this team.
For the Celtics, things certainly appear to be waning, as one tough battle after another through the Eastern Conference finally appears to be catching up with them. Their initial adjustments against the Warriors seemed to have been countered by head coach Steve Kerr, as the focus on Curry has led to more opportunities for Thompson and Wiggins who are just getting better as the series go on.
Celtics’ big man Robert Williams III is also waning as the series goes on, as his surgically repaired knee kept him to just 30 minutes (10 points and 8 rebounds) in a Game 5 they needed him badly.
Look for the Warriors to get it done tonight in Boston, picking up their fourth championship in eight years in the process.
#2. Over 210 | -110 at DK Sportsbook
With Bostons’ struggles from the field in Game 5 and the Warriors’ tenacious defense, we’ve tiled to the under which has now gone 3-2 in the series. In the theme of parity we’ve seen throughout, I see this one going over as the Celtics have played much better at home offensively this postseason, and Curry isn’t going 0 for 9 from deep for two straight games.
While the defense has been the name of the game as of late, with the season on the line and points being at a premium, I look for aggression from both superstars in Curry and Tatum, allowing role players such as Thompson and Jaylen Brown to get their shots up as well.
NBA Finals Game 6 Prediction and Best Bet
I called for it in Game 5 when we cashed with the Warriors, and we’re going back to the same approach; Robert Williams III is the lynchpin that holds this Celtics team together. Early in the series, before his surgically repaired knee started acting up, Williams III’s size and athleticism gave the Warriors fits. Still, since he’s been limited, the Warriors have struck a different tone on both sides of the ball.
Gary Paton II has also contributed more and more as this series has gone on, playing for the first time in months at the start but working his way up to 15 points in 26 minutes of action in Game 5. While it will no doubt be a difficult task closing out in Boston, I look for Curry to come out shooting early and often, and for his 0-9 performance from deep in Game 5 to be just a footnote in another record-setting cap to a season.
Pick: Warriors +4
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