A Tennis tipster since July 2021, The Racing Pundit has delivered a very good 20% ROI with 6 profitable months from 6 total months tipping – that’s 100% chance of having a profitable month.
On average there’s 5 tips per day typically advised at 1 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £5 per day.
Skill Factor: VERY LOW
The statistical p-value gives a measure of how likely these results could be achieved purely by chance and the lower this figure is the better.
The Racing Pundit’s p-value is 0.0325 (to 4 dec.places ).
This indicates its unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..
Losing Streaks: FAIRLY SHORT
The all-time tip Win Rate over 835 tips has been 33%.
You will always get losing runs but if this Win Rate and the volume of tips stays pretty much the same you should anticipate the following over the next periods of time:
- Over the next month: At least one run of 13 losing tips.
- Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 16 losing tips.
- Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 17 losing tips.
The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation (CV) calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.
But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?
If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.
The CV puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.
The Racing Pundit‘s coefficient of variation figure is 1.06 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.
Value for Money: VERY GOOD
The monthly subscription cost is reasonable at £37 per month so with an ROI of 20% this means each 1% of ROI costs £1.89 which is around average value.
However, taking a 3-month or 6-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper. If things work out then the subscription cost will not eat into your profits as much. And if it doesn’t go to plan you can always cancel and get a refund.
Staking Levels: REASONABLE
Knowing the ROI and the number of tips per day and the advised stake points you can work out how much you need to bet to cover the monthly subscription cost. Betting more than that per point would then give you a clear profit.
The trouble is that you don’t know what ROI is going to be. It might even be negative – a losing month.
But doing the calculation can provide an indication of the scale of betting levels – will it be something like £10 a day or more like £100 a day.
£1.30 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 20% ROI from 5 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 1 points you’d need to be betting at £1.30 per point to cover the £37 monthly subscription cost.
£4.60 per point to clear £100 profit
To hope to make around £100 clear profit a month the staking levels would need to be in the region of £4.60 per point. At this level you’d be betting about £25 a day.
Betting Bank: 46pts
The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the ELLR.
The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake
This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.
The betting bank size for The Racing Pundit would be around 46 points.
So, if you were betting at £4.60/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £250.
1 MONTH: Every 1 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d joined and followed for 1 month you’d have made an average of 315 points profit.
2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 686 points profit.
3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 1128 points profit.
|Consecutive Periods||Total Periods||Made Profit||Made Loss||%Profitable||Avg.Period Profit||Avg.Period Loss||Expectancy||Profit Factor|
|any 1 month||5||5||0||100%||315||0||315||315|
|any 2 months||4||4||0||100%||686||0||686||686|
|any 3 months||3||3||0||100%||1128||0||1128||1128|
|any 4 months||2||2||0||100%||1372||0||1372||1372|
|any 5 months||1||1||0||100%||1579||0||1579||1579|
Find out more about The Racing Pundit here
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