Evaluating prop prices is hard when you have to compare two different over/under numbers for the same prop. With standard bets you may be used to, like spreads and totals, we have generally good rules for how much a half a point is worth in terms of price, as well as what key numbers for each sport make the half point more or less valuable. With props, there are no such rules we can rely on, because it’s an incredibly complicated evaluation. Take Karl-Anthony Towns’ rebounds props from the overnight lines last night: Two books had an over/under line of 8.5 with the over heavily juiced, and other books had 9.5 with the under heavily juiced:
How low would the juice on the over 8.5 or the under 9.5 have to be at one of those books before it showed value? And to make it even more confusing, would your answer be different if the line was for a points prop, or an assists prop? (Hint: it should be.)
This is why we utilize distribution-based evaluation of prices and props at Betscope to be able to answer that question. Using a price evaluation tool like the one we have can spot instances where a prop price isn’t in line with market consensus, offering good value. I spotted one such line in Aaron Gordon’s points prop last night:
The DraftKings line was a full point off from market consensus, which may not sound like a lot, but is absolutely HUGE projected edge when run through our EV calculator:
Being able to spot these types of pricing mistakes is a critical component of identifying value in the props market. It’s not just about having an idea of predicting the game outcome, but it’s just as much, if not more, about identifying weak prices at sportsbooks that will let you capitalize on value spots.
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Colin Davy is the founder of Betscope, a set of sports betting tools designed to help you assess betting markets for pricing inefficiencies, discover your full range of correlated beliefs for games, and ensuring you are always attacking the betting market at its weakest points. For more information, you can check out the tools at www.betscope.io – no sign up, no login, and it’s FREE!
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