I hope everyone had a great Independence Day. We just needed one more strikeout from Manoah or Rodon to be profitable. However, that’s all ancient history now, and the variance will be in our favor today. I’ve got quite a few plays to break down, so let’s get this show on the road.
Javier Baez Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
Cleveland vs. Detroit 1:10 pm ET
It might be safe to say that the Javier Baez signing in Detroit has not worked out very well in his first season. Baez has been struggling of late as he’s hitting just .179 over his last seven games, and today, he’ll face Shane Bieber, who has gotten the best of him in past meetings. For his career, Baez is 0 for six against Bieber with two strikeouts, and in the other four at-bats where he put the ball in play, his average exit velocity is just 85.4 mph. That makes his expected batting average only .098. Baez should have another quiet day if Bieber goes deep into this game.
Alex Kirilloff Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Minnesota vs. Chicago 2:10 pm ET
We go from a struggling hitter to one that is on fire. Alex Kirilloff is hitting .346 with a 1.140 OPS in his last seven games. This afternoon, he faces a potentially declining starter in Lancy Lynn. Lynn has not looked sharp since returning from injury. His hard-hit is 11 percent higher than last season, and his xBA is up by over 80 points. Kirilloff has faced Lynn only four times, and while he’s hitless, he’s made solid contact against him. His average exit velocity was 96.4 in the two balls he put in play against Lynn, which makes his xBA .338 rather than the triple zeroes he has. Given how hot he’s been and his struggles against Lynn, Kirilloff is in line to do some damage.
Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Washington vs. Philadelphia 7:05 pm ET
This number is simply too low for how well Gray has been throwing the ball this season, and he’s gone over this number in 11 of his 15 starts. While the Phillies do not strike out all that often (19th in K rate against righties), their veterans each have strikeout rates above 20 percent, and the rest of their lineup is unproven, which makes them due to regress. Lastly, Gray averages nearly five and two-thirds innings per start this year, so we only need one strikeout per inning if Gray is on tonight.
Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
New York vs. Pittsburgh 7:05 pm ET
The Pirates have a very young lineup and strike out a ton. Pittsburgh has the second-highest strikeout rate against righties in the majors. We saw that come to fruition last night as Jameson Taillon hit his strikeout prop despite getting slapped around a bit. However, tonight should look very different with Luis Severino on the mound. Sevy has brought his elite stuff to every outing, and opposing batters have had trouble putting the ball in play against him. His strikeout rate is in the top 15 percent of all qualified pitchers, and he has gone over this total in eight of his 14 starts.
Miles Mikolas Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
St. Louis vs. Atlanta 7:20 pm ET
Mikolas is not typically a strikeout pitcher, but his matchup today is far too good not to take him. The Cardinals righty has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season as he works efficiently and gets deep into games. However, his workhorse mentality only helps us here as the Atlanta Braves have the third-highest strikeout rate in the big leagues. We’ve seen Mikolas fly over this number against teams with similar strikeout rates, and if he works deep into this one, his prop should be no sweat.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
The post 5 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Wednesday, July 6th (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.