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10% ROI from football tips •theBetInvestor

Star-Tips’s tips have produced a very good 10% ROI over 8 total months of tips. He has had 6 profitable months out of 8 which is 75% success rate.

On average there’s 18 tips per day typically advised at 10 pt. which means, at £1 per point, you’d be betting around £180 per day.

Skill Factor: VERY HIGH

The statistical p-value provides an indication of how likely a tipster’s results could be achieved purely by chance – have they just been lucky?

Star-Tips’s p-value is 0.0000 (to 4 decimal places) – in other words there’s a 0.0000% probability these results are due to luck.

This suggests its extremely unlikely these results could be achieved by pure chance..

Losing Streaks: FAIRLY SHORT

The all-time tip Win Rate has been 43% over the 8 months and 4738 tips.

If the Win Rate and numbers of tips is maintained you should anticipate encountering the following longest losing runs over the next periods of time:

  • Over the next month: At least one run of 11 losing tips
  • Over the next 3 months: At least one run of 13 losing tips
  • Over the next 6 months: At least one run of 14 losing tips

Risk: LOW

The finance industry uses a coefficient of variation (CV) calculation to measure how risky an investment is. In simple terms its the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

But in even simpler terms its looking at the monthly ROI figures – are they always about the same or do they vary a lot?

If they vary a lot that means performance is volatile and volatility means risk.

The CV puts a specific number to this risk so that you can compare investments for risk but you can get a sense of how risky/volatile a tipster is just by looking at how much the ROI changes month-on-month.

Star-Tips‘s coefficient of variation figure is 0.90 indicating performance is stable and risk is low.

Value for Money: FAIR

At £29 per month the subscription cost is reasonable.

With an ROI of 10% this means each 1% of ROI costs £2.79 which represents slightly above the average £2.50 per 1% ROI.

However, taking out a 3-month subscription will make things relatively cheaper and you can always cancel the subscription and get a refund if things don’t work out.

Staking Levels: HIGH

Using the ROI figure together with the average number of tips per day and the average advised points per tip we can get a rough estimate of how much we need to betting to at least cover the monthly subscription cost.

£0.10 per point to cover subscription cost
Based on the 10% ROI from 18 tips a day at the average advised stakes of 10.5 points you’d need to be betting at £0.10 per point to cover the £29 subscription cost.

£0.30 per point to clear £100 profit
To make somewhere in the region of £100 clear profit a month, over and above the subscription cost, the staking levels would need to be around £0.30 per point. At this level you’d be betting in the region of £55 a day.

Betting Bank: 400pts

The size of Betting Bank required to adequately follow a tipster is based on a combination of the average stake size and the Estimated Longest Losing Run (ELLR).

The formula used here to calculate the size of Betting Bank is: Betting Bank Size = 2.5 x ELLR x Average Bet Stake

This will enough to withstand a worst-case scenario of two (2) longest losing runs in quick sucession and still have something left (0.5) to continue betting.

The betting bank size for Star-Tips would be around 400 points.

So, if you were betting at £0.30/pt stakes aiming to make £100 clear profit the Betting Bank would need to be around £100.

Expectancy

1 MONTH: If you’d followed Star-Tips for 1 month at any time since the service started there was a 75% chance you’d make a profit. Looking at it another way you were 3 times more likely to have made money than lost money in any one month and your profit would have been 12 times more than the amount you might have lost – an average of 2005 points profit versus an average loss of -166 points.

2 MONTH: Every 2 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 2 months you’d have made an average of 2947 points profit.

3 MONTH: Every 3 month period since this service started has been profitable. If you’d followed for 3 months you’d have made an average of 3701 points profit.

Consecutive Periods Total Periods Made Profit Made Loss %Profitable Avg.Period Profit Avg.Period Loss Expectancy Profit Factor
any 1 month 8 6 2 75% 2005 -166 1462 12
any 2 months 7 7 0 100% 2947 0 2947 2947
any 3 months 6 6 0 100% 3701 0 3701 3701
any 4 months 5 5 0 100% 4584 0 4584 4584
any 5 months 4 4 0 100% 5730 0 5730 5730
any 6 months 3 3 0 100% 7402 0 7402 7402

Find out more about Star-Tips here

 

 

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Author: Micheal May